Recent polling suggests the party will make a big impact, but the number of seats it could win hinges on a broad mix of factors

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party has burst back on to the Australian political scene after last year’s federal election, when it won four Senate seats, and has surged in the polls since then. Recent polling suggests it will make a big impact in this month’s Queensland state election.

Seven polls since May 2017 have shown One Nation’s vote between 15% and 18%, and last week’s Galaxy poll put the party on 18%. Two polls at the beginning of this year predicted a vote of more than 20%.

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