Rolling coverage of the day’s political developments as they happen, including Theresa May’s statement to MPs about Brexit
This is from Sky’s Beth Rigby.
From V-day massacre to no votes at all. Told by govt source that No 10 planning to move the votes to tomorrow to help placate annoyed MPs who’d like to spend V-day with loved ones…. think it has to go thru cabinet *watch this space*
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Theresa May would gain seats and win a tiny majority if there were a general election now, according to a YouGov poll and analysis for the Times. The findings probably deserve more attention than conventional surveys because this is not a standard poll. Instead, YouGov polled more than 40,000 adults and then used a system called multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) to predict results for all seats in Britain, based on constituency demographics. A YouGov MRP analysis before the 2017 correctly predicted a hung parliament when almost all conventional polling suggested the Tories were going to win.
Here is an extract from the Times’ splash (paywall).
The shift would take the Tories to 321 seats, just enough for a working majority. There are 650 seats in the Commons but Sinn Fein’s seven MPs do not take their seats and the speaker is not counted.