From a damaging defeat to being let off the hook, these are the possible scenarios

With a deal on the customs union already in the bag, all eyes are on the meaningful vote amendment. Most of the last year’s 11 Tory rebels, led by the former attorney general Dominic Grieve, have indicated they will stand firm. Their number was boosted this morning by the resignation of Philip Lee, and rumours were swirling at Westminster that others might yet join the rebel alliance. But the Tory backbenchers might not be alone in digging in. Downing Street has officially ruled out backing Grieve’s 11th-hour amendment, tabled on Monday night, making it unlikely to be put to a vote unless No 10 reverses its decision. If both sides stand firm, a government defeat is on the cards.

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